Cbank sees Russia’s GDP rising 1.1–1.6% in Apr–Jun, Jul–Sep

MOSCOW, Jun 15 (PRIME) -- Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 1.1–1.6% in April–June and July–September, the central bank said in its report on monetary policy on Friday.

“Under the basic forecast, in the second and third quarters GDP growth to the previous quarter will amount to 0.2–0.6% including seasonal and calendar factors. Taking into account last year’s base effect, annual growth of GDP in the second and third quarters is expected at 1.1–1.6%,” the report said.

The regulator expects that annual inflation will pass minimum figures in the second quarter and switch to acceleration from the third quarter.

“Its annual pace in the third and fourth quarters of 2018 is expected at 3.0–3.5% and 3.5–4.0%, respectively,” the central bank said.

The central bank also raised its forecast for retail lending growth in 2018 to 13–18% from 11–13% and lowered the forecast for 2019 to 10–13% from 11–14%.

The regulator improved its outlook for growth of lending to the economy this year to 9–11% from 7–9% and worsened the forecast for 2019 to 6–9% from 8–11% and for 2020 to 6–10% from 7–10%.

The central bank also raised the optimistic forecast for oil prices in 2019–2020 to U.S. $70 per barrel from $65 per barrel.

The bank kept the average basic forecast for oil prices at $55 per barrel in 2019 and $50 per barrel in 2020.

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